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#4111888 - 06/07/21 09:04 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Binding_Posts_ Offline

Member

Registered: 07/09/07
Posts: 143
Loc: Kentucky
Govdeals is also known for shill bids. Driving up the bids intentionally.
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#4111906 - 06/08/21 12:38 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Member

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 293
Loc: Utah
All I can say is that if you think Crown Vic's are in short supply in your neighborhood, come west. They are e v e r y w h e r e west of the rockies in great supply, that hasn't diminished at all in past several years. I'm talking cars with less than 100k miles. Within a $75 plane ticket from me I probably have 20 Vics on my radar right now. I'll get none of them because the prices they are being bid up to are absurd.

And whether or not they are scarce in your market, but plentiful in mine is IRRELEVANT, because I'm not comparing prices between markets. I'm only tracking the inflated prices at auction in my markets, not the Craigslist want ads in Baton Rouge. Correct me if I'm wrong, but this thread is labelled "Inflated P71 Auction Prices", is it not?

Back to the actual thread topic, two sold at auction this morning from a seller about 40 minutes from me by commuter train, both white patrol 2010 p7b's. This is a seller from which I have bought two cars in March. Both were identical to the cars I bought albeit with lower mileage. These two most recent sold at auction for $5003 and $7038 with fees included.

Plain White Patrol 2010 P7B - 53K miles - Sold for $7038

All I can say is wow.

As a case study, here are all the Vics this one seller has sold in the past 9 months, see if you can spot a pattern, other than the fact that the seller is obviously saving his best for last.

8/18/20 2009 White p71 124k miles $798 NO MECHANICAL FLAWS
8/18/20 2010 White p7b 103k miles $1045
11/17/20 2009 White p71 89k miles $2007
3/10/21 2010 White p7b 106k miles $2729 to me
3/12/21 2010 White p7b 112k miles $2557
3/31/21 2011 White p7b 96k miles $2227
3/31/21 2010 White p7b 104k miles $2337 to me
4/28/21 2010 White p7b 99k miles $3304
4/28/21 2010 White p7b 70k miles $5555
5/26/21 2010 White p7b 51k miles $3906 CNG ONLY vehicle
6/7/21 2010 White p7b 57k miles $5003
6/7/21 2010 White p7b 53k miles $7038

Nah, prices aren't dramatically inflated in the short run at all. That's just the "new going rate" for these "scarce" cars.

Tell that to Ogden, because they have at least 6 more 2010 Vics in the pipeline that are just like the ones they've sold this year. They'll be happy to hear that their cars are scarce and this is the new going rate. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that their fleet manager is actually dumping low mileage Vics that could remain in the fleet a few more years simply because he can't believe the prices they are fetching.


Edited by Dmblanch (06/08/21 12:51 AM)
_________________________
1) 2002 White P71 - UT Training vehicle, 89K miles, sold. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - UT Patrol car, 74K miles, sold. 3) 2005 White P71 - WA Fire Chief vehicle, 54K miles, sold.
4) 2011 Black P7B - CA Sheriff vehicle, 79K miles, sold. 5) 2008 White P71 - Idaho sheriff vehicle, 95k miles, outfitted as movie prop rental. 6) 2005 White P71 - UT University police, 74k miles, sold.
7) 2004 Silver P71 - UT Fire Dept., 104K miles, sold. 8) 2004 Toreador Red LX Sport - Want ad find, 111K. 9) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 106K, sold.
10) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 104K, sister to #9, sold. 11) 2005 White P71 - ID Police, 115k. 12) $500 2006 White P71 - UT Police beater.

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#4111938 - 06/08/21 10:41 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
hot__box Offline

Over the Hill

Registered: 09/22/15
Posts: 1732
Loc: Bayou State
The market comparison was to prove my point, which is obviously valid. You have nice pickings in your area, good for you. Tell that to the rest of the country where these cars are dwindling away, fast.

I’d like to see that cavalier attitude in two or so more years. Lol.
_________________________
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#4112060 - 06/09/21 06:28 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Member

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 293
Loc: Utah
Hate to disagree, but comparisons across widely disparate markets are meaningless if the intent is to illustrate short term inflationary prices, because not all markets are the same. Availability of Alfas in Ancona is much different than in Albuquerque. Likewise, retail want-ad to wholesale auction comparisons are meaningless. Likewise LX, MGM, Town Car comparisons to p71 prices are meaningless.

Might I suggest that if in your market you don't have any P71's at auction, then this is probably not a topic upon which you can offer meaningful commentary?

Likewise, my attitude in TWO YEARS will obviously be different than it is today. My attitude changes constantly with the market and the market is changing rapidly in the short term due to inflationary pressures not caused by supply shortages.

If you want to identify causality among statistical clutter, you have to first eliminate disparities. Hence the reason why I tried to supply data from a single seller of nearly identical cars over the short term.

Back to actual topic, which is for those who've forgotten "Inflated P71 Auction Prices".

On my auction agenda for today, I only had SEVEN p71's closing. (I know, I know, but they're so "scarce".) To my surprise, I actually won one of them. All were cars I deemed to be in solid working mechanical condition, with minimal cosmetic defects. See if you can guess which one I won.

2010 White P7B 74k miles sold for $3680
2010 White P7B 80k miles sold for $3775
2007 Charcoal p71 104k miles sold for $3345
2009 Sky blue p71 95K miles sold for $3680
2009 White P71 74K miles sold for $3315
2005 White P71 115k miles sold for $2054
2010 White P7b 92k miles sold for $3610

I won the 2005, for a top bid of $1876, $2054 with fees. This will be the highest mileage Vic I've ever purchased, I've owned two other 2005's before, and I like 'em well enough.

There's definitely a trend with the other cars, all went for over $3000. Is that the new baseline price for decent vics? Seems to be out here. Other than that, I'm loathe to pick out any meaningful price distinction between these very similar cars. At least there were no absurdities going on like with the $5 and $7k Ogden cars of Monday.


Edited by Dmblanch (06/09/21 07:30 PM)
_________________________
1) 2002 White P71 - UT Training vehicle, 89K miles, sold. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - UT Patrol car, 74K miles, sold. 3) 2005 White P71 - WA Fire Chief vehicle, 54K miles, sold.
4) 2011 Black P7B - CA Sheriff vehicle, 79K miles, sold. 5) 2008 White P71 - Idaho sheriff vehicle, 95k miles, outfitted as movie prop rental. 6) 2005 White P71 - UT University police, 74k miles, sold.
7) 2004 Silver P71 - UT Fire Dept., 104K miles, sold. 8) 2004 Toreador Red LX Sport - Want ad find, 111K. 9) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 106K, sold.
10) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 104K, sister to #9, sold. 11) 2005 White P71 - ID Police, 115k. 12) $500 2006 White P71 - UT Police beater.

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#4112128 - 06/10/21 11:24 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Tenevic_P71 Offline
Over the Hill

Registered: 08/27/15
Posts: 1014
Loc: US
The supply is definitely on a steady decline in my area, but there will still be nice cars in the auction pipeline for years to come.
These cars are not scarce yet but as we discussed previously in this thread, no longer will you find scores of them in every corner of the used or wholesale market.
_________________________
2007 P71, 94k, 2700 hours, 3.27 traclock. #21040-Sold 10/'20
2009 P71, 129k, 1100 hours, 3.27 open. #138-Sold 11/'18
2007 P71, 156k, 6400 hours, 3.55 traclock. #3422-Sold 06/'17
2006 P71, 135k, 4800 hours, 3.55 traclock. #3375-Sold 12/'16
Ooh, trouble-free transmission

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#4112156 - 06/10/21 02:43 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Dmblanch]
jasonp1102 Offline
Rookie

Registered: 12/30/19
Posts: 79
Loc: NJ
Originally Posted By Dmblanch
Hate to disagree, but comparisons across widely disparate markets are meaningless if the intent is to illustrate short term inflationary prices, because not all markets are the same. Availability of Alfas in Ancona is much different than in Albuquerque. Likewise, retail want-ad to wholesale auction comparisons are meaningless. Likewise LX, MGM, Town Car comparisons to p71 prices are meaningless.

Might I suggest that if in your market you don't have any P71's at auction, then this is probably not a topic upon which you can offer meaningful commentary?

Likewise, my attitude in TWO YEARS will obviously be different than it is today. My attitude changes constantly with the market and the market is changing rapidly in the short term due to inflationary pressures not caused by supply shortages.

If you want to identify causality among statistical clutter, you have to first eliminate disparities. Hence the reason why I tried to supply data from a single seller of nearly identical cars over the short term.

Back to actual topic, which is for those who've forgotten "Inflated P71 Auction Prices".

On my auction agenda for today, I only had SEVEN p71's closing. (I know, I know, but they're so "scarce".) To my surprise, I actually won one of them. All were cars I deemed to be in solid working mechanical condition, with minimal cosmetic defects. See if you can guess which one I won.

2010 White P7B 74k miles sold for $3680
2010 White P7B 80k miles sold for $3775
2007 Charcoal p71 104k miles sold for $3345
2009 Sky blue p71 95K miles sold for $3680
2009 White P71 74K miles sold for $3315
2005 White P71 115k miles sold for $2054
2010 White P7b 92k miles sold for $3610

I won the 2005, for a top bid of $1876, $2054 with fees. This will be the highest mileage Vic I've ever purchased, I've owned two other 2005's before, and I like 'em well enough.

There's definitely a trend with the other cars, all went for over $3000. Is that the new baseline price for decent vics? Seems to be out here. Other than that, I'm loathe to pick out any meaningful price distinction between these very similar cars. At least there were no absurdities going on like with the $5 and $7k Ogden cars of Monday.


To be honest none of those prices are too absurd for good, clean Vics imo, especially from out west. I wouldn't hestitate to pay those prices for any one of them, even if the whites were all standard optioned ex-patrols, as long as the paint was clean. Can always go visit a junkyard for a couple hundred dollars and pull civi seats.

In my personal journey I'm looking for probably one like the Sky Blue 09 or Charcoal 07 you have listed, if they were SAP/SAP-lites. I personally wouldn't want an 05 because I like the digital cluster but for that price that is definitely not bad at all.


On the topic of markets, at least from my searches (NJ/PA area and Tampa/Orlando area), it seems auction prices have essentially reached last year's craigslist prices of the civilian trim lines. I haven't seen too many that have gone for egregious money. I had my eye on a couple ex-patrol white 07-11s from Orlando PD that all went between $2000-3000 inc fees, saw a couple SAP-lites that went for $3500ish. Whether it stays like that, who knows. Supply is definitely going down, there's no doubt about that. But how long it will take to truly dry up across all parts of the country, that's anyones guess. I'd figure in 2-3 more years we will probably be seeing the very last of the P71s/P7Bs hitting auction blocks.


Edited by jasonp1102 (06/10/21 02:58 PM)
_________________________
2007 Ford CVPI, Peelformance White, 165k/811hr - Daily Driver - 01/20-Present
2008 Ford CVPI, Performance White (paint was great), 104k/3898hr - RIP 10/19-01/20, front end accident
1997 Mercury Grand Marquis, Black, ~145k (odometer died at 111k) - RIP 07/13-12/19, rust, bad suspension, bad O2 wiring
1998 Ford Taurus - RIP 01/10-06/13, blown head gasket and warped heads

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#4112170 - 06/10/21 05:36 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Member

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 293
Loc: Utah
Not many “scarce” P71s on my auction watch calendar today, only three of the best late-model vehicles that I have seen this year out of Sacramento California, all SAP‘s from 2006 to 2007 in attractive non-white colors with under 80,000 miles and under 300 engine hours.

With that kind of mileage and idling histories these are truly detective cars in as good a condition as one could expect from 13 year old police vehicles. No mechanical flaws no cosmetic issues whatsoever. Basically as good a vehicle as you can expect to find in today’s auction markets.

So how did they do? Surprisingly they attracted very few bidders, only about a dozen bids were submitted on each one of the three auctions. This was due to the fact that novice early bidders bid all three cars up so high so early that there was no last-minute competition for any of them.

The first one was a sky blue 2007 full SAP P71 with 80,000 miles and only 323 hours it closed at $4785 with fees.

I was not able to watch the second one close. it was a silver 2007 full SAP with 74,000 miles and only 200 engine hours. When last I saw it it had very few bids and was already over $4400. It probably topped out around five k or more.

The third one was a dark blue metallic full SAP 2006 with 73,000 miles and just over 210 hours. It finished off at $6060 but again there was no last-minute bidding. It was as if the outsiders shot the moon early and nobody else wanted to go over the top of them or probe where their top might have been.

There is definitely no feeding frenzy associated with any of these auctions and these were about as good a Vic as you could ask for. They are the kind of cars that the Arizona dealership that specializes in these things could probably sell for eight or $9000, as ridiculous as that sounds to most of us.
_________________________
1) 2002 White P71 - UT Training vehicle, 89K miles, sold. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - UT Patrol car, 74K miles, sold. 3) 2005 White P71 - WA Fire Chief vehicle, 54K miles, sold.
4) 2011 Black P7B - CA Sheriff vehicle, 79K miles, sold. 5) 2008 White P71 - Idaho sheriff vehicle, 95k miles, outfitted as movie prop rental. 6) 2005 White P71 - UT University police, 74k miles, sold.
7) 2004 Silver P71 - UT Fire Dept., 104K miles, sold. 8) 2004 Toreador Red LX Sport - Want ad find, 111K. 9) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 106K, sold.
10) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 104K, sister to #9, sold. 11) 2005 White P71 - ID Police, 115k. 12) $500 2006 White P71 - UT Police beater.

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#4112200 - 06/11/21 02:29 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Member

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 293
Loc: Utah
The second car cited above, the silver 2007 did indeed sell over $5K. It closed at $5610.
_________________________
1) 2002 White P71 - UT Training vehicle, 89K miles, sold. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - UT Patrol car, 74K miles, sold. 3) 2005 White P71 - WA Fire Chief vehicle, 54K miles, sold.
4) 2011 Black P7B - CA Sheriff vehicle, 79K miles, sold. 5) 2008 White P71 - Idaho sheriff vehicle, 95k miles, outfitted as movie prop rental. 6) 2005 White P71 - UT University police, 74k miles, sold.
7) 2004 Silver P71 - UT Fire Dept., 104K miles, sold. 8) 2004 Toreador Red LX Sport - Want ad find, 111K. 9) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 106K, sold.
10) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 104K, sister to #9, sold. 11) 2005 White P71 - ID Police, 115k. 12) $500 2006 White P71 - UT Police beater.

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#4112242 - 06/11/21 06:35 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
GM_Guy Offline
Posting Addict

Registered: 12/17/00
Posts: 18548
Loc: London, Ontario Canada
Sounds like people are putting a little too much faith in those odometer/hour readings.
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#4112244 - 06/11/21 06:40 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Member

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 293
Loc: Utah
Or a little too much weight on a low odometer reading.

I get it they are worth a premium, but is it worth it to pay $4 or $5000 more for a car that has 50,000 versus one that has 100,000 miles? Especially when these Vics will go to 2 or 300k miles without a problem?

On a 20 or $30,000 car, sure. But on a 2 thousand dollar car?


Edited by Dmblanch (06/11/21 07:41 PM)
_________________________
1) 2002 White P71 - UT Training vehicle, 89K miles, sold. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - UT Patrol car, 74K miles, sold. 3) 2005 White P71 - WA Fire Chief vehicle, 54K miles, sold.
4) 2011 Black P7B - CA Sheriff vehicle, 79K miles, sold. 5) 2008 White P71 - Idaho sheriff vehicle, 95k miles, outfitted as movie prop rental. 6) 2005 White P71 - UT University police, 74k miles, sold.
7) 2004 Silver P71 - UT Fire Dept., 104K miles, sold. 8) 2004 Toreador Red LX Sport - Want ad find, 111K. 9) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 106K, sold.
10) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 104K, sister to #9, sold. 11) 2005 White P71 - ID Police, 115k. 12) $500 2006 White P71 - UT Police beater.

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#4112256 - 06/11/21 09:14 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Old_Guy_Stu Offline

Over the Hill

Registered: 04/28/19
Posts: 2297
Loc: Cleveland, OH
If you assume the car has a useful life of 200K, then it does make sense. Instead of paying $4000 (which is the new $2000) for one that's half used up, you pay 5000 for one that's only 1/4 used up. You pay 20% more for 150% more life.

That's assuming you're buying the car to keep. If you're flipping 'em, keep looking for those $2000 bargains.


Edited by Old_Guy_Stu (06/11/21 09:49 PM)
Edit Reason: corrected the math
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1988 CVLX Formal Roof (Love Boat) POTM July 2019 & Aug 2020, 56K
E-code lights w/ relays, LEDs w/ switchbacks, 15x8 Ansen slots w/ 255/60 BFG's, Kenwood stereo, various hacks.
1988 CVLX (Destroyer) 1998-2001 driven to death 202K
1988 Squire (Chris Craft) 1996-1998 junkyard rescue driven to death 199K

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#4112274 - 06/12/21 02:07 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: GM_Guy]
jasonp1102 Offline
Rookie

Registered: 12/30/19
Posts: 79
Loc: NJ
Originally Posted By GM_Guy
Sounds like people are putting a little too much faith in those odometer/hour readings.


People do put too much weight into hour readings. It's very clear to me that some of these cars have new clusters that didn't get hours transferred (if they are even programmable, I've read around that they are not.)

For reference, I bought my 07 at 156k / 734hrs. It's now at 170k / 835hrs, or 14k miles / 101hrs over 17 months, and I don't idle in P/N much besides when doing maintenance work that involves idling or warming the car up in the winter for a few mins before I leave work or whatever. When I see some of these cars with 150k miles but only like 300 hours on the cluster, even 73k/210hrs like the one car Dmblanch referenced, it makes me think the cluster was replaced.


Edited by jasonp1102 (06/12/21 02:08 AM)
_________________________
2007 Ford CVPI, Peelformance White, 165k/811hr - Daily Driver - 01/20-Present
2008 Ford CVPI, Performance White (paint was great), 104k/3898hr - RIP 10/19-01/20, front end accident
1997 Mercury Grand Marquis, Black, ~145k (odometer died at 111k) - RIP 07/13-12/19, rust, bad suspension, bad O2 wiring
1998 Ford Taurus - RIP 01/10-06/13, blown head gasket and warped heads

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#4112284 - 06/12/21 10:04 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
GM_Guy Offline
Posting Addict

Registered: 12/17/00
Posts: 18548
Loc: London, Ontario Canada
Thats my angle, the base clusters (be it in a grand marquis, regular crown vic or the cvpi version) are trouble prone, and there is no telling how many of these cars received a new cluster while in service. Which leads me to another question; of these ex-cop cars, how many states do not record police cars in with the dmv? (I think florida is one) so if you run a carfax you get essentially no odometer record through the years to spot any major changes, only an odometer reading once the car falls into private hands.

Its like shysters that claim low mileage on 5 digit mechanical odometers -- "only 54,000 original miles!" on a 1976. B.S. is my first reaction, it might be 54, 154, 254, or even 354. My Box Grand Marquis when the guy who bought it was parting it out claimed it only had 86,0000 miles because that is all it showed, well, let me tell you, I rolled that puppy over 2 times. But the car was well kept and did look like only 86k. for those that don't know, it got hit and insurance wrote it off hence somebody getting their hands on it to part it out) Mechanical inspection is your only true indicator of vehicle quality.


As for the hour meter, look through the last page or two in 'what ya do to your panther' thread, posted the grand marquis cluster I turned on the hour meter that I just installed in my cvpi. Zero hours right now. The cluster has ~145k miles on it--40k more than I actually have--in our system cops have to register yearly with our "dmv" so mileage is verified. Hour meter didn't log hours unless its been enabled. So now my cvpi has a 145k miles and 0 hours vs the 1979 hours it had...
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#4112290 - 06/12/21 01:14 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Tenevic_P71 Offline
Over the Hill

Registered: 08/27/15
Posts: 1014
Loc: US
My most recent vic purchase has 120k miles and 800 hours on the meter. Lowest hours I can recall personally seeing on a P71. And I don't believe it for a minute.
The car looks to have been on pretty rough patrol duty. I was expecting at least a couple thousand hours on the meter based on the condition of the car.
Another P71 the same agency was auctioning at the same time had a civi cluster swapped in.

2007 CVPI


Edited by Tenevic_P71 (06/12/21 01:16 PM)
_________________________
2007 P71, 94k, 2700 hours, 3.27 traclock. #21040-Sold 10/'20
2009 P71, 129k, 1100 hours, 3.27 open. #138-Sold 11/'18
2007 P71, 156k, 6400 hours, 3.55 traclock. #3422-Sold 06/'17
2006 P71, 135k, 4800 hours, 3.55 traclock. #3375-Sold 12/'16
Ooh, trouble-free transmission

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#4112304 - 06/12/21 04:35 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Old_Guy_Stu]
Dmblanch Offline
Member

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 293
Loc: Utah
Originally Posted By Old_Guy_Stu
If you assume the car has a useful life of 200K, then it does make sense. Instead of paying $4000 (which is the new $2000) for one that's half used up, you pay 5000 for one that's only 1/4 used up. You pay 20% more for 150% more life.

That's assuming you're buying the car to keep. If you're flipping 'em, keep looking for those $2000 bargains.


Allow me to turn your math against you for a second.

Reading above you’ll see that I just purchased a 115,000 mile P71 for $2075. I also highlighted quite a few 50,000 mile vics that sold for over $5000. These are not hypothetical numbers these are actual.

Using your same 200,000 mile benchmark I have 85,000 miles left and can replace my car once for $4150 giving me 170,000 miles of life for around $4000 versus their 150,000 miles of life for $5000. This is without taking into consideration that I can probably till sell the first 200,000 miles Vic for around 1000 when I dump it.


Edited by Dmblanch (06/12/21 04:38 PM)
_________________________
1) 2002 White P71 - UT Training vehicle, 89K miles, sold. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - UT Patrol car, 74K miles, sold. 3) 2005 White P71 - WA Fire Chief vehicle, 54K miles, sold.
4) 2011 Black P7B - CA Sheriff vehicle, 79K miles, sold. 5) 2008 White P71 - Idaho sheriff vehicle, 95k miles, outfitted as movie prop rental. 6) 2005 White P71 - UT University police, 74k miles, sold.
7) 2004 Silver P71 - UT Fire Dept., 104K miles, sold. 8) 2004 Toreador Red LX Sport - Want ad find, 111K. 9) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 106K, sold.
10) 2010 White P7B SAP - UT Police, 104K, sister to #9, sold. 11) 2005 White P71 - ID Police, 115k. 12) $500 2006 White P71 - UT Police beater.

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