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#4128298 - 11/21/21 02:14 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Dmblanch]
2007CrownVic Offline
Over the Hill

Registered: 11/19/11
Posts: 3261
Loc: Canada
Originally Posted By Dmblanch
Originally Posted By 2007CrownVic

Ive said it before and I'll say it again- The amount of bad chargers at auction now is about the same ratio of junk Crown Vics back when they were mostly what made up auctions. Tahoes have the same cam problems Chargers do. Taurusceptors have other problems. The only plus about Crown Vics is they were cheaper to fix but that's how things go with newer cars. If a Crown Vic is in decent shape with no obvious signs of problems and doesn't go for a rip off price I'd have no problem buying one. For Chargers and any of the others even if they look to be ok they have to go for a good enough price that you aren't loosing money on them if they have issues and if you can do that get one because they are super fun to drive. Actually these days it's not too hard because greedy car lots are selling them for more then double the crazy auction prices.

The cam problem isn't an oiling issue it's defective roller lifters. Youd think that when they've been used in large numbers of cars for the past 30 years they'd have it figured out by now but it's a problem that a lot of newer vehicles are having.

There's no problem with AWD durability fuel mileage is the reason they moved it to the V6. AWD was still using the 5 speed transmission and AWD was a popular option. Move it to the V6 and they could finally put the newer transmission behind the hemi and steer people towards the V6 models at the same time.



While I disagree wholeheartedly with 2007CrownVic on both the relative quality of chargers versus crown Vics coming to auction and the source of the cam/lifter failure problem…. there are some things that we agree on. I agree that all the police vehicles which utilize a VVT engine (including the Tahoes and the Caprices) suffer from cam and lifters problems at very early ages. This argues in favor of something in the police method of using the vehicles that is hard on the cams, not to some metallurgical defect in the manufacture of the cars that is spread amongst different manufacturers.

As for what causes cam and lifter failure in Chargers, you don’t have to listen to either one of us, you can go straight to the Internet and weigh all of the many arguments in this long-running debate on all sides and make up your own mind. What all the theorists agree upon is the cost of the repair, which remains unchanged at around $4000 no matter what causes it. And yes it is cheaper if you do it yourself just as the Crown Vic intake manifold repair is proportionally cheaper if you do it yourself.

I cannot speak to the relative percentages shot-out Crown Vics hitting the auction market 10 years ago compared to the relative percentages of shot-out Chargers hitting the market now because I wasn’t shopping for either car at auction 10 years ago. I will have to take 2007Crownvics word for that. All I can go by is my own experience and what I am experiencing in my conversations with the many fleet managers with whom I have talked to regarding this issue. They all universally pine for the old days when they had crown vics in their fleets and at the same time they nurse the few remaining warhorse vics that are still running for as long as they possibly can because they love them and they give them no trouble. At the same time I’ve spoken to three Utah fleet managers this year alone who have told me they are sick of chargers and they are purging their entire fleet of them regardless of mileage, including the state of Utah’s entire highway patrol fleet.

Then there is the ultimate barometer that everyone should go by, meaning one’s own personal first-hand experience. I have owned 14 crown Victorias and Mercury Marquis that I bought at auction from police agencies. On those cars I have done no mechanical repairs to the vast majority of my fleet and on the few cars that I did have to repair the largest repairs were front wheel bearings and brakes on one car, a transmission flush and filter on a second car, blend door actuators on two more cars, and then your usual assortment of horn reconnects, window motors and door switches etc. on a half dozen other cars on other cars. that’s it… On 14 cars.

On the other hand all three chargers went straight from the seller to my auto shop for necessary repairs right out of the gate, two via triple AAA tows because they didn’t make it home on my drives from their local Utah sellers to my house. The two vsixes both had front end suspension issues averaging about $750 and the hemi is still in the shop with a seized AC compressor, cost tbd.

So I have managed to avoid the big repair bills in both cases probably because I am very conservative in the cars that I choose to bid on, but across-the-board the chargers cost me more money to get ready than the vics.


Cam failure is happening in the same models that don't see police use. But police use does push vehicles harder and make those problems become more aparent. The biggest problem I have with both Chrysler and GM with this is that it's a well known issue but they do very little to fix it. Actually that's not entirely true, the hemi roller lifters do have bigger rollers now but the problem seems more whatever inferior metal they are made of.

Crown vics for sure are the safer buy but they were also in a very unique situation that they dragged on far longer then they normally would have if they had any real competition so they had more then enough time to improve everything, not to mention they are still an older technology car so there is less to go wrong with them. Part of the reason fleet managers like them is because they are easy to fix and more durable but some are also biast because that's what they worked on for so long and for a lot of them that's all they ever worked on. Service can be neglected and the cars don't care. Then they get Chargers dumped on them that have all the problems that come with newer cars and they aren't used to dealing with that. Other Fleet managers hate newer Fords, it seems to depend on what they're running.

I am leary of buying Chargers or anything else for that matter compared to cvpi's. In most cases it's been some sort of body issue that makes me pass, a couple didn't sound right when they were running. It wasn't cam and it could have been nothing but I wasn't willing to take the chance. For some reason a lot of Tahoe's Ive looked at aren't running. Then the ones that are have trashed interiors or they were converted for some other use. Probably the biggest thing that keeps me away from Tauruses, other then being bland and not wanting to dish out money to service them is that most are white and still have peeling paint problems!!!! Even the non white ones peel now.

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#4128358 - 11/21/21 06:58 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
RipWixomAssembly Offline
Member

Registered: 01/28/20
Posts: 117
Loc: Michigan
https://www.govdeals.com/index.cfm?fa=Main.Item&itemid=5973&acctid=453 Wonder what went on this Vic. Betting on the intake manifold


Edited by RipWixomAssembly (11/21/21 06:59 PM)
Edit Reason: Added my guess on what went on this Vic
_________________________
RIP Wixom Assembly 1957-2012 CVN Discord
My Rides:
1995 Lincoln Town Car 129K miles.


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#4128386 - 11/21/21 11:57 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Climber

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 594
Loc: Utah
One undeniable advantage the Chargers have over the Vics... they sell for MUCH more money at any age.

My 2005 P71 (Car 11) just sold for $3800. It was a tougher 3 week sale due to its 115k miles, which is higher than I like to sell them. Nothing wrong with it mechanically, very solid, I did nothing to it but grease the lower steering column. It only had peelformance white patches that I addressed with my rattle can secret sauce. I bought it for $1850, so I did fine, but still it was a slow seller.

Chargers, on the other hand, are easy sells to testosterone laden young men. Especially hemi chargers. They'll pay too much for them every time. This 2007 with 87000 miles that I just bought, and broke the serpentine driving it home on a seized AC compressor, will go for about $8500. Ain't no way I could ever get $8500 out of a 2007 Black and White P71. But I also had to pay $3550 for it.

I may not even have to repaint it from black and white, since it's legal in Utah to drive an Oreo. however the kind of knucklehead kid who would buy it like that shouldn't be allowed to drive it, and I'm a little torn about selling it that way.

2nd gen Chargers with the Cam/lifter problem sell for even more, even with the death tick. The state of Utah was selling off a half dozen of its 3 gen 2018 Chargers with over 110k miles AND with videos showing their death rattles and somehow they still managed to sell two of them for about $12k. I guess that's a "savings?" over the $18 to 20k that buyers were paying for the city of South Jordans 2018 fleet liquidation Chargers with only 20 to 40k miles on them. The other two V6 Chargers I had were also both quick and easy sells.

Curious, because police chargers are SUPER cheap and tinny feeling inside. But it doesn't matter.
_________________________

1) 2002 White P71 - 89K miles. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - 74K. 3) & 6) & 11) 2005 White P71 - 54K, 74k, 115K. 4) 2011 Black P7B - 79K. 5) 2008 White P71 - 95k. 7) 2004 Silver P71 - 104K. 8) 2004 DT Red LX Sport - 111K. 9) & 10) 2010 White P7B SAP - 104K & 106K. 12) 2006 White P71 - scrapped. 13) 2007 Gray LX Sport - 125k. 14) 2006 White MGM LS Premium - 93k.

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#4128404 - 11/22/21 09:22 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Armada Master]
Armada Master Offline

Posting Addict

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 19503
Loc: Houston, TX
Originally Posted By Armada Master
Originally Posted By av8or1
Originally Posted By Armada Master
For contrast this truck that's very similiar to the one I just bought Saturday for $4600 sold a couple months back for over $7k:

https://www.govdeals.com/index.cfm?fa=Main.Item&itemid=1186&acctid=1731

Yeah but in TEXAS the truck "is King" as the saying goes. The fella from whom we purchased The 5-O does the auction-fix-resell thing for a living and is a dealer. He has always told me that trucks are his staple because he can't buy enough of them and because they never sit long on his lot. Heck one of the last times I was out his way he had a couple of basket cases that were 70s vintage trucks. Both were purchased by folk who purportedly were planning on restoring them. 'Point being that even those critters sold within a week. So I'm not surprised that you were able to flip that GovDeals truck like you were. Congratulations on a good result! Do you flip too, as in being a dealer?


That's not my Govdeals truck, that was just a similiar one to what I purchased from Lemons Auctioneers/Fort Bend County a couple weeks ago. I try & flip a few a year as an individual, but with limited access to only public auctions which have gone mostly online, I only wind up getting to do a couple a year these days at best.


I'm bumping this truck I bought back up to the top for a moment to highlight the "hidden" surprises involved with auction buying.

After 25 years of gov't vehicle purchasing, I was forced to do a bonded title on this truck due to a 'registration only' allegedly taken out against it in 2014. The county I bought it from even called Austin trying to get it removed since it was obviously erroneous but the State refused. Of course, the State had no problem continuing to take renewals on it for 6 years after. Anyhoo, that put me at an increased price on TT&L on a now devalued truck (due to title) that I'm probably going to HAVE to keep instead of sell.

Add to that failing calipers on the rear from 'sit-itus" (as I call it) & the 9 year old tires I discovered on the truck, I'm now substantially more invested in a truck I essentially am going to have to be married to for three years until the bonded title clears to a regular title.

Costs breakdown:
Purchase price: $4600
TT&L (bonded): $600
Tires: $600
Brake repairs: $200

That puts me $6k into a truck I cannot reasonably sell because I'd have to adjust the price for the bonded title even if I found a brave enough buyer. Retail on the truck with a clear title I'd place at about $7500 (post-COVID pricing). If it was pre-COVID, I'd really be in trouble because I'd put the truck at about $6k resale value which is what I have in it or my "breakeven" point. Of course had I been buying it "pre-COVID", I'd have stopped the bid at $3500.

I've never lost money on a flipping cars but I've gotten close once or twice, this one is turning into one of those times.
_________________________
2004 Ford CVPI 130k miles
1993 Chevy Caprice 5.0 V8 150k miles
2003 Ford CVPI 110k miles
2007 Ford CVPI 100k miles
1989 C1500 185k miles

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#4128410 - 11/22/21 02:58 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Climber

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 594
Loc: Utah
I've seen those "untitled" vehicles a couple of times during my regular hunts, I guess some states don't require registrations or titling if the vehicle is state owned. They always seemed funny to me, so I avoided them.

Here's a few other categories of auction vehicles I avoid.
  • Anything that has been re-poed by the holding agency and is being sold with "bill of sale" only.
  • Any California vehicle with back-due registration fees which they insist must be paid to the state before the state would release the title. I did that once, with a Ferrari, it took me about a year before I pried the thing loose from California for a new Utah title.
  • Any branded title of any kind from any state. Although, I have seen branded out-of-state titles turn into "clear" titles in Utah, I don't know how this magic trick is achieved and they'll still show up on Carfax as having once been branded. Branded titles just throws off the math too much to gamble around with.

I once bought a motorcycle with a "duplicate" title. Big mistake. The scam was this, the owner applied for a duplicate title even though he hadn't lost the original, when it arrived he immediately went to a payday lender and got a title loan on the bike surrendering the original, then he immediately put the bike for sale, selling it to me with the duplicate. Then he took the cash from the lender and the case from me and skeedaddled. When I submitted the duplicate title for a transfer to my name, I was informed of the lien and uncovered the con. I had to sell the bike for parts only and fortunately got within a hundred dollars of what I paid for it.

Trucks and Vans are a special thorn in my side at auction. I'd LOVE to buy them and I never ever win the auctions I try for. Why not? Because the sell at auction for too much money. Basically I have to pay no more than 50% of expected retail sales price for a vehicle at auction for it to be worth the effort. Much more than that and it doesn't take much to push the car into break even territory. And trucks/vans at recent auction all sell for too much beyond that 50% target to be comfortable, as your example so aptly indicates.

Here's some of my recent examples, which I'll try to supply all the niggling costs to give you a fuller picture.

2005 P71, 115 k miles, cost $1875, $187 auction fees, $200 transport costs. It had paint issues which I paid maybe $50 in cans of spray primer, paint, and clearcoat. $40 in window switches. $5 in rubber plugs for antenna holes. Thought I'd have to change the lower steering column, and bought one (later resold), but grease fixed the stiffness. Installed a police center console and spare tire taken from a junked vehicle, no cost. Sold for $3800.

So I made about $1400, but you can see how repairs can creep up on you.

I bought this 2007 Charger for $3550 and had to pay fees and taxes on it, so I'm at $4000 and change. $35 in transport costs (not counting free AAA tow) and I'll face about $700 in upcoming AC fixes. Spent $65 on 4 stereo speakers, and would like to put floormats in it. If I reconnect the strobe lights for movie use, that's another $200, but movie rentals are +$100 a day. If I paint the white parts black, that's about $1200, so I may not do it because expected sales price is about $8500.

And the deal with trucks/vans out here in the West is that they just never ever sell for low enough to make the math work. Armada's cited example is exactly what I see all the time. I search them, follow them, and see them SOAR past my "get out" points with many days left in every auction.

I'd really like to by a little "camperlife" van of the type that is so popular with hipsters right now and convert it myself. Can't do it because all these little Astro AWD and Transit Connects that are 10 to 20 years old are still selling for $8-$10K raw, pre-conversion. So I never come close to winning those auctions.


Edited by Dmblanch (11/22/21 03:01 PM)
_________________________

1) 2002 White P71 - 89K miles. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - 74K. 3) & 6) & 11) 2005 White P71 - 54K, 74k, 115K. 4) 2011 Black P7B - 79K. 5) 2008 White P71 - 95k. 7) 2004 Silver P71 - 104K. 8) 2004 DT Red LX Sport - 111K. 9) & 10) 2010 White P7B SAP - 104K & 106K. 12) 2006 White P71 - scrapped. 13) 2007 Gray LX Sport - 125k. 14) 2006 White MGM LS Premium - 93k.

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#4128494 - 11/22/21 11:50 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
2007CrownVic Offline
Over the Hill

Registered: 11/19/11
Posts: 3261
Loc: Canada
What I don't understand about Chargers is why people are paying about as much retail for vomet comets as regular hemi chargers which are usually a lot nicer go for. And unlike Crown Vics the only real give away on the exterior of being a police car is the rims and keylock for the trunk. Put plain steel rims on a normal white, siliver, blue etc.. Charger and you're pretty much there.

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#4128500 - 11/23/21 12:11 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Ponyguy Offline

Grand Poobah

Registered: 08/07/03
Posts: 12339
Loc: Oswego, IL
I was looking at the dealership used vehicles for sale... and I was shocked at the stuff they had, and the prices they were asking...

There's a nicely decked-out 5 year-old F-350 F-350 Diesel SuperCrew with 67k on the odometer... they're asking about $70k for it... Most everything else decent is priced in the $30-40K range... even with "out of warranty" sort of miles (36k+) on them...
_________________________
Sig removed. Read the rules.

So, I read the rules. Now I'm even more confused.

My transportation sources:
1972 Green Schwinn Speedster;
1984 Canyon Red Mustang V-6;
2004 Gold Ash GMQ LS Ultimate Edition, (Traded away, sadly);
2019 Turd Brown Fusion Titanium Hybrid Energie.

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#4128524 - 11/23/21 08:38 AM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Dmblanch]
Armada Master Offline

Posting Addict

Registered: 11/14/04
Posts: 19503
Loc: Houston, TX
Originally Posted By Dmblanch
Basically I have to pay no more than 50% of expected retail sales price for a vehicle at auction for it to be worth the effort. Much more than that and it doesn't take much to push the car into break even territory. And trucks/vans at recent auction all sell for too much beyond that 50% target to be comfortable, as your example so aptly indicates.


That's always been my rule of thumb as well, 50%.

I made the exception on this truck because of the inflated market & I was on the fence about keeping it & replacing my older 89 C1500 if this truck turned out to be a runner than I will "drive" any additional costs back out of it keeping it. Unfortunately the title fiasco pushes me off the fence into keeping it or else & selling my older, proven truck to recoup my money there instead.

Back to your 50% deal, prime example was a couple of Tauruses I bought pre-COVID & flipped. A 2001 & 2006, bought around 80k miles, I bought for $1500 each & quickly flipped for $3k. And I still wound up an extra $500 into them for minor repairs & TT&L, but I made a quick $1k off of each with minimal effort.
_________________________
2004 Ford CVPI 130k miles
1993 Chevy Caprice 5.0 V8 150k miles
2003 Ford CVPI 110k miles
2007 Ford CVPI 100k miles
1989 C1500 185k miles

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#4128600 - 11/23/21 07:13 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Dmblanch]
Stangstinger Offline
n00b

Registered: 09/01/15
Posts: 18
Loc: NE, USA
Originally Posted By 2007CrownVic


Cam failure is happening in the same models that don't see police use. But police use does push vehicles harder and make those problems become more aparent. The biggest problem I have with both Chrysler and GM with this is that it's a well known issue but they do very little to fix it. Actually that's not entirely true, the hemi roller lifters do have bigger rollers now but the problem seems more whatever inferior metal they are made of.

Crown vics for sure are the safer buy but they were also in a very unique situation that they dragged on far longer then they normally would have if they had any real competition so they had more then enough time to improve everything, not to mention they are still an older technology car so there is less to go wrong with them. Part of the reason fleet managers like them is because they are easy to fix and more durable but some are also biast because that's what they worked on for so long and for a lot of them that's all they ever worked on. Service can be neglected and the cars don't care. Then they get Chargers dumped on them that have all the problems that come with newer cars and they aren't used to dealing with that. Other Fleet managers hate newer Fords, it seems to depend on what they're running.

I am leary of buying Chargers or anything else for that matter compared to cvpi's. In most cases it's been some sort of body issue that makes me pass, a couple didn't sound right when they were running. It wasn't cam and it could have been nothing but I wasn't willing to take the chance. For some reason a lot of Tahoe's Ive looked at aren't running. Then the ones that are have trashed interiors or they were converted for some other use. Probably the biggest thing that keeps me away from Tauruses, other then being bland and not wanting to dish out money to service them is that most are white and still have peeling paint problems!!!! Even the non white ones peel now.


For these reasons I too am leery with chargers. The Vics just have so much more surety. I've really only ever taken a loss on one. Their problems, with the few they have, can easily be anticipated, spotted, and fixed for the most part. Luckily they are pretty trouble free and their inherent flaws are not too catastrophic, all things considered. With the Charger, there are so many unknowns. With a lot of the issues, especially on the newer ones, you're looking at pretty hefty repair prices. This is even for routine maintenance and wear items. They just cost more to repair and maintain. But to offset this ......

Originally Posted By Dmblanch
One undeniable advantage the Chargers have over the Vics... they sell for MUCH more money at any age.

My 2005 P71 (Car 11) just sold for $3800. It was a tougher 3 week sale due to its 115k miles, which is higher than I like to sell them. Nothing wrong with it mechanically, very solid, I did nothing to it but grease the lower steering column. It only had peelformance white patches that I addressed with my rattle can secret sauce. I bought it for $1850, so I did fine, but still it was a slow seller.

Chargers, on the other hand, are easy sells to testosterone laden young men. Especially hemi chargers. They'll pay too much for them every time. This 2007 with 87000 miles that I just bought, and broke the serpentine driving it home on a seized AC compressor, will go for about $8500. Ain't no way I could ever get $8500 out of a 2007 Black and White P71. But I also had to pay $3550 for it.

I may not even have to repaint it from black and white, since it's legal in Utah to drive an Oreo. however the kind of knucklehead kid who would buy it like that shouldn't be allowed to drive it, and I'm a little torn about selling it that way.

2nd gen Chargers with the Cam/lifter problem sell for even more, even with the death tick. The state of Utah was selling off a half dozen of its 3 gen 2018 Chargers with over 110k miles AND with videos showing their death rattles and somehow they still managed to sell two of them for about $12k. I guess that's a "savings?" over the $18 to 20k that buyers were paying for the city of South Jordans 2018 fleet liquidation Chargers with only 20 to 40k miles on them. The other two V6 Chargers I had were also both quick and easy sells.

Curious, because police chargers are SUPER cheap and tinny feeling inside. But it doesn't matter.


... exactly as dmblanch says, they go for so much more. The newest, lowest mile example of a vic for sale in my area likely still would go for less than a 200k+ beat old v6 charger. You get into the Hemis, of any year, and the prices just skyrocket simply due to having a Hemi. The younger guys out there will happily overpay for a hemi charger. This has been the case in my area for the last 10+ years. It doesnt even matter if they have problems, are beat to piss, or aren't running. In every instance they sell for way more than theyre worth. The chargers, for all the expensive costs they may incur, WILL sell for more. Compared to crown Vics, they cost more at auction, require a higher investment to get up to snuff, have more expensive potential problems, and will sell for much more. In many cases this extremely high resale is still enough to cover any costs incurred. A vic requiring 1 massive repair will likely cause you to break even or lose money. A charger requiring multiple big repairs can still deliver a profit if you bought in cheap enough. Flipping chargers is a like flipping Vics, but with higher stakes. The initial cost to buy is higher, costs to repair are higher, but for a lot more resale. It can still be worth it if you get in low enough. It just is not as safe as buying Vics for 1-2k at auction knowing you can get 3-4k for them (despite those days coming to an end with the crazy prices lately).

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#4129044 - 11/29/21 06:19 PM Re: Inflated P71 Auction Prices [Re: Tenevic_P71]
Dmblanch Offline
Climber

Registered: 11/13/19
Posts: 594
Loc: Utah
Well, I just got my 07 Hemi charger back from the shop less $800 for the new AC compressor, recharge and serpentine belt!

So I'm batting a thousand for all three of the cop Chargers I've bought for flipping purposes. All three have required OVER $700 in mechanical repairs to be roadworthy. And of the 14 Panthers I've bought for the same purposes, the highest mechanical repair I spent on 1 of them was about $340 in transmission flush and filter. A couple of others needed less than $200 in simple parts and most needed nothing at all.

So this Charger cost me $3550, just over $4k with fees, plus $800 for AC fixes and $60 in speakers. Expect to get $8 to 8.5k out of it, but that margin is shrinking daily as Armada can appreciate.
_________________________

1) 2002 White P71 - 89K miles. 2) 2003 B&W P71 - 74K. 3) & 6) & 11) 2005 White P71 - 54K, 74k, 115K. 4) 2011 Black P7B - 79K. 5) 2008 White P71 - 95k. 7) 2004 Silver P71 - 104K. 8) 2004 DT Red LX Sport - 111K. 9) & 10) 2010 White P7B SAP - 104K & 106K. 12) 2006 White P71 - scrapped. 13) 2007 Gray LX Sport - 125k. 14) 2006 White MGM LS Premium - 93k.

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